No predictions. No narratives. No noise.
A structured daily framework that classifies the current market regime through risk tilt, state pressure, and explicit invalidation levels — using the same rules-based process every U.S. trading session. It delivers a consistent read of the macro state the market is actually in. No drift. No interpretation layer. The framework names the current state. Nothing else.
The date in the strip is the U.S. trading session for this snapshot (the pipeline’s as_of — same as outputs/latest.json). It is not the time of day you opened the page.
Pricing convention: those levels use the official 4:00 PM Eastern daily cash close for that session date — a market rule, not a “live” clock in the strip. Three series are from the same close, not intraday.
Data source: MacroEvidence pipeline, same run as the signal card for June 11, 2026. Run scripts/update_site.py from the project root after a pipeline run to sync the page.
When it updates in production: after each U.S. trading day, once data and the publication pipeline have finished (usually the same evening Eastern; exact time varies). There is no intraday refresh on this cadence.
Between regimes. No dominant tilt. Direction determined by which invalidation condition clears first.
As of June 11, 2026, three closest structural matches for today’s neutral stable regime — gap widening, rates leading, SPX below 1.0σ for four sessions. Members search the full 50-year database.
Dec 2018 · Neutral | Stable. SPX +0.5σ · 10Y +1.2σ · WTI -1.1σ. Gap 0.70σ · rates leading · SPX below 1.0σ x4. Regime broke defensive — SPX lost 7,199 equivalent within 2 sessions as gap held above 0.60σ and rates did not pull back
Aug 2019 · Neutral | Stable. SPX +0.6σ · 10Y +1.2σ · WTI -1.0σ. Gap 0.60σ · rates leading · SPX below 1.0σ x4. Regime resolved pro-risk — 10Y pulled back below 1.0σ within 3 sessions, SPX reclaimed 1.0σ and broke above 7,419 equivalent
Oct 2023 · Neutral | Stable. SPX +0.7σ · 10Y +1.3σ · WTI -1.2σ. Gap 0.60σ · rates leading · SPX below 1.0σ x3. Gap resolved pro-risk — rates pulled back, SPX reclaimed 1.0σ within 4 sessions, WTI stayed suppressed throughout resolution
Structural pattern matches only — not predictions. 0.60σ gap with SPX below 1.0σ for four sessions is the defining condition.
One analog is a data point. Seven is a base rate. Members access the full 50-year analog database — filtered by outcome, duration, Fed environment, and signal tolerance.
Join Members · $49/moMacroEvidence ingests three orthogonal market signals every session. They’re chosen because they don’t move in lockstep — each one captures a different dimension of market stress.
These aren’t arbitrary. Equities measure risk appetite. Rates measure the cost of capital. Oil measures the physical economy. When they diverge, the regime is unstable. When they align, the regime is clear. The framework reads both states.
The math is deterministic. Same inputs always produce the same outputs. No author judgment, no editorial adjustment — just the framework applied consistently every session.
MacroEvidence reads three market signals every session: the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury yield, and WTI crude. The three cards below walk from raw prints to the published read.
Expresses each signal as a Z-score against its trailing 63 trading sessions: subtract the rolling mean from the latest print, divide by the rolling standard deviation. That normalization puts equity levels, nominal yields, and oil on one comparable scale regardless of absolute units or decimal places.
Z-score = (current value − 63-day mean) ÷ 63-day std dev
Goes forward: one comparable Z-score per signal on the same 63-session baseline.
Sorts each normalized signal into one of three states—elevated, neutral, or depressed relative to its own baseline—so three signals yield 27 discrete combinations before labeling.
Goes forward: a single combined state from the lattice before scoring.
Turns that combination into the published read: a named regime cluster, a 0–100 confidence figure paired with a stability classifier on how tightly the trio agrees, plus a concise risk tilt (pro-risk, neutral, or defensive). The pipeline is deterministic: identical inputs reproduce the same output every time.
Session read: combines the lattice state with confidence and stability before the published card adds invalidation thresholds.
The 63-day rolling window isn’t arbitrary — it captures roughly one quarter of market behavior, long enough to filter daily noise, short enough to catch genuine regime shifts.
Signals
3
Orthogonal. No redundancy.
Possible regimes
27
Every combination scored.
Rolling window
63d
One quarter of behavior.
Every output includes two explicit invalidation conditions — specific data thresholds that would force a regime reclassification. This is the core commitment. Not “something might change the view.” Exactly what would change it.
↓| DATE | EVENT | REGIME | CONFIDENCE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Regime shift — Risk-on Emerging | Risk-on · Emerging | Low (35/100) | ✓ |
| 2024-08-05 | Carry unwind | Risk-off · Confirmed | High | ✓ |
| 2023-03-13 | SVB collapse | Risk-off · Fragile | Medium | ✓ |
| 2022-06-14 | Fed tightening | Restrictive · Stagflation | High | ✓ |
| 2020-03-20 | COVID crash | Risk-off · Confirmed | High | ✓ |
| 2008-10-10 | GFC peak stress | Risk-off · Fragile | Medium | ✓ |
Live track record starts April 13, 2026. 46 / 46 outputs scored 8/8 on Signal Checker.
Three signals. One regime read per session. Two specific invalidation conditions on every output.
Every market session, MacroEvidence reads three signals: the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil. Each is normalized on a 63-day Z-score. The combined state is classified into one of 27 regime combinations, scored for stability and confidence, and delivered as:
You use it as a check against your own thesis. The framework names the current state and the conditions that would change it. Nothing more.
The S&P 500, 10-year yield, and WTI crude collectively encode growth expectations, inflation pressure, liquidity conditions, energy stress, and risk appetite. The choice is constrained on purpose. Three orthogonal signals produce a regime read in 30 seconds. Hundreds of indicators produce a research report no one finishes.
These omissions are product decisions, not gaps:
If you want predictions, trades, or portfolio-specific meaning, MacroEvidence isn’t that. If you want a daily structured input to run your thesis against falsifiable boundaries, it is.
Editorial macro publishers compete on the quality of their views. MacroEvidence competes on the quality of its boundaries. Three structural commitments separate the framework:
Active investors who trade or invest as a primary or significant secondary income source, form their own market views, and want a structured second opinion. Readers who already have a thesis and want a consistent way to test it.
Not for passive index investors, day traders hunting entry signals, or anyone who wants predictions.
Three signals. 63-day Z-score normalization. Same structure every session — so today's read is directly comparable to any prior session without wading through commentary.
Every output names the exact thresholds that would change the read. The framework can be checked against what actually happened — session by session.
Regime, tilt, confidence, distance to invalidation, session context — one artifact. No narrative padding. Scannable before you decide.
MacroEvidence is built for active investors who make their own decisions. One framework, every session. The interpretation stays with you.
Every session adds a row to a compounding, falsifiable dataset - regime, confidence, distance, and whether each invalidation condition fired or held. A longitudinal record no narrative-driven product maintains.