Daily macro state · Three signals · No predictions
Same clock. Same inputs. Same structure — every session.
Scannable state read: regime and risk tilt, what moved mechanically versus the prior session, distance to invalidation, state pressure, and two explicit invalidation conditions.
Last Read:
The strip above shows the as-of moment for the snapshot you are looking at: one completed U.S. cash session, with S&P 500, 10-year Treasury yield, and WTI crude (plus regime and tiles) all taken from the same 4:00 PM Eastern close — not intraday, and not “right now” while the market is still open.
Homepage snapshot (manual): figures below reflect the April 24, 2026 U.S. session close. Last read (when this HTML was last updated) is shown as April 25, 2026. Until this file is wired to the pipeline, numbers are edited after each output — not a live API.
When it updates in production: after each U.S. trading day, once data and the publication pipeline have finished (usually the same evening Eastern; exact time varies). There is no intraday refresh on this cadence.
Free to listen. Derived from distance to invalidation and state pressure — not a market opinion.
Markets stay uncertain. Most macro content adds noise or tells you what to believe. MacroEvidence does neither. Each session we publish the current macro regime from three signals — the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury yield, and WTI crude — using the same model every time.
You get a scannable state read: regime and risk tilt, what moved mechanically versus the prior session, distance to invalidation, state pressure, and two explicit invalidation conditions. No price targets. No portfolio advice. No story of the day. If you run your own capital and your own thesis, this is a structured second input that stays in its lane.
Three signals. 63-day normalization. Same structure every day — so today is directly comparable to any prior session without wading through commentary.
Every output names the exact thresholds that would change the read. The framework can be checked against what actually happened — session by session.
Regime, tilt, confidence, distance to invalidation, session context — one artifact. No narrative padding. Scannable before you decide.
MacroEvidence is built for active investors who make their own decisions. One framework, every session. The interpretation stays with you.
Every session adds a row to a compounding, falsifiable dataset — regime, confidence, distance, and whether each invalidation condition fired or held. A longitudinal record no narrative-driven product maintains.
Paid subscribers receive the complete daily output — Signal Card, full invalidation framing, distance to threshold, and session context on Substack. If you already follow the free posts, subscribing is how you get the complete artifact and the archive as it compounds.
If you want calls, targets, or "what to buy" — this isn't for you.
Methodology — how the model works
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